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	Philip Morris International Inc	98.25	0.72	0.74%
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Philip Morris International Reports 2023 Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year Results; Delivers 2023 Full-Year Reported Diluted EPS of $5.02 and Adjusted Diluted EPS of $6.01, Representing Currency-Neutral Growth of 11.0%; Provides 2024 EPS Forecast

2023 FOURTH-QUARTER AND FULL-YEAR HIGHLIGHTS

Fourth-Quarter

• Smoke-free products accounted for 39.3% of total net revenues
• Adjusted in-market sales volume for HTUs, which excludes the net unfavorable impact of estimated distributor and wholesaler inventory movements, up by an estimated 13.9%
• Total IQOS users at quarter-end up by 1.2 million versus September 2023
• Market share for HTUs in IQOS markets up by 1.3 points to 9.7%
• ZYN nicotine pouch shipment volume in the U.S. of 116.3 million cans, representing growth of 78.2% versus fourth-quarter 2022 Swedish Match shipments of 65.3 million cans
• Combustible tobacco net revenue growth of 5.3% on both a reported and organic basis, driven by pricing of 9.9%

Full-Year

• Third consecutive year of volume growth driven by HTUs
• Adjusted in-market sales volume for HTUs, which excludes the net unfavorable impact of estimated distributor and wholesaler inventory movements, up by an estimated 14.8%
• Total IQOS users at year-end estimated at approximately 28.6 million (up by 3.7 million versus December 2022), of which approximately 20.8 million had switched to IQOS and stopped smoking
• Market share for HTUs in IQOS markets up by 1.2 points to 9.1%
• ZYN nicotine pouch shipment volume in the U.S. of 384.8 million cans, representing growth of 62.0% versus 2022 Swedish Match shipments of 237.5 million cans
• Increased regular quarterly dividend in September by 2.4% to $1.30 per share, or an annualized rate of $5.20 per share
• Combustible tobacco net revenue growth of 3.5%; growth of 5.5% on an organic basis, driven by pricing of 8.9%
• Organic growth in adjusted operating income driven by the performance of smoke-free products

"Our business delivered a strong finish to 2023 and we achieved a number of remarkable milestones on our path to becoming a smoke-free company," said Jacek Olczak, Chief Executive Officer.

"We are pleased that smoke-free products reached nearly 40% of our total net revenues and over 40% of our gross profit in the fourth quarter. This was led by the continued growth of IQOS, which has now surpassed Marlboro in terms of net revenues, confirming its position as the leading premium nicotine brand less than 10 years from launch. The fourth quarter also marked the first anniversary of our combination with Swedish Match, which delivered very strong results in 2023 driven by the stellar U.S. performance of ZYN."

"We are entering 2024 with strong momentum, and we expect it will be another year of excellent performance underpinned by an acceleration in organic smoke-free net revenue and profit growth."

2023 FULL-YEAR SUMMARY

Adjusted net revenues increased by 7.8% on an organic basis, driven by total cigarette and HTU shipment volume growth of 1.0% (reflecting growth of 14.7% for HTUs and a decline of 1.4% for cigarettes), favorable category mix of smoke-free products and positive pricing.

Adjusted operating income increased by 3.7% on an organic basis with a substantial acceleration in the second half of the year, as supply chain disruptions and ILUMA-related factors continued to dissipate, coupled with an accelerating contribution from smoke-free products.

Adjusted diluted EPS of $6.01 increased by 11.0%, excluding currency, driven primarily by the organic growth in adjusted operating income, as well as the results of the Swedish Match business and its strong performance led by ZYN in the U.S. The $0.20 unfavorable currency variance in the fourth quarter includes a $0.09 balance-sheet-related currency impact in Argentina. While the company's affiliate in Argentina remains subject to highly inflationary accounting treatment, with the U.S. dollar treated as the functional currency, the impact reflects the depreciation of Argentine peso-denominated monetary net assets, which impacts earnings on a periodic basis when translated to U.S. dollars and are also subject to capital controls.

2024 FULL-YEAR FORECAST

Reported diluted EPS is forecast to be in a range of $5.90 to $6.02, at prevailing exchange rates, versus reported diluted EPS of $5.02 in 2023. Excluding a total 2024 adjustment of $0.42 per share and an adverse currency impact of $0.11, at prevailing exchange rates, this forecast represents a projected increase of 7.0% to 9.0% versus adjusted diluted EPS of $6.01 in 2023, as outlined in the above table.

2024 Full-Year Forecast Assumptions

This forecast assumes:

• An estimated total international industry volume decline for cigarettes and HTUs, excluding China and the U.S., of -2% to flat;
• Total cigarette, HTU and oral smoke-free product shipment volume growth for PMI of flat to +1% driven by smoke-free products;
• 14% to 16% adjusted in-market sales volume growth for HTUs, including an approximate 2 billion units adverse impact from consumer adjustment to the EU characterizing flavor ban, and essentially no growth in Russia, resulting in HTU shipment volumes of more than 140 billion units;
• Nicotine pouch shipment volume in the U.S. of approximately 520 million cans;
• Net revenue growth of 6.5% to 8% on an organic basis;
• Organic operating income growth of 8% to 9.5%;
• An acceleration in organic smoke-free net revenue and gross profit growth compared to 2023;
• Broadly unchanged net revenue and adjusted operating loss in Wellness and Healthcare segment;
• No earnings impact from any potential favorable court ruling related to the legality of a supplemental tax surcharge on HTUs in Germany, which went into effect in 2022 (see PMI's first-quarter 2023 press release from April 20, 2023, for additional detail). The company currently expects to have greater visibility on the outcome in the first quarter of 2024;
• Full-year amortization of acquired intangibles of $0.42 per share, which includes an estimate of amortization of IQOS commercialization rights in the U.S. following the closing of the agreement to end our commercial relationship with Altria Group, Inc. covering IQOS in the U.S. effective May 1, 2024. We currently estimate that the incremental increase in amortization expense in 2024, as a result of this transaction, will be approximately $370 million on a pre-tax basis for the remaining 8 months of the year. For full year 2025 through 2028, we currently estimate an annual impact of approximately $555 million on a pre-tax basis;
• Net financing costs of approximately $1.3 to $1.4 billion;
• An effective tax rate, excluding discrete tax events, of approximately 21% to 22%;
• Operating cash flow of $10 to $11 billion at prevailing exchange rates, subject to year-end working capital requirements;
• Capital expenditures of approximately $1.2 billion, partly reflecting investments in ZYN capacity in the U.S.;
• Net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio improvement of 0.3x to 0.5x at prevailing exchange rates as we continue to target a ratio of around 2x by the end of 2026;
• No share repurchases in 2024; and
• A strong start to 2024 with first quarter adjusted diluted EPS of $1.37 to $1.42, including an estimated adverse currency impact of 10 cents at prevailing exchange rates.

Factors described in the Forward-Looking and Cautionary Statements section of this release represent continuing risks to these projections.

New Segment Structure

Following the combination and the progress in 2023 toward integration of the Swedish Match business into the existing PMI regional segment structure, PMI will update its segment reporting by including Swedish Match results in the four existing geographical regions. As of the first quarter of 2024, PMI will report on this basis. The company plans to disclose select historical financial information for the 2021 to 2023 period reflecting the above mentioned change in the coming weeks.

Global Patent Settlement

On February 2, 2024 PMI announced that it has reached a global settlement with British American Tobacco p.l.c. that resolves all ongoing patent infringement litigation between the parties related to heated tobacco and vapor products. Please see the Form 8-K dated February 2, 2024 for additional detail.

Conference Call

A conference call hosted by Jacek Olczak, Chief Executive Officer, and Emmanuel Babeau, Chief Financial Officer, will be webcast at 9:00 a.m., Eastern Time, on February 8, 2024. Access the call at www.pmi.com/2023Q4earnings.

TOTAL MARKET, CONSOLIDATED SHIPMENT VOLUME & MARKET SHARE

Total Market Volume

Full-Year

Estimated international industry volume (excluding China and the U.S.) for cigarettes and HTUs of 2.6 trillion, decreased by 1.6%, reflecting declines in the SSEA, CIS & MEA Region, the Europe Region and the Americas Region, partly offset by an increase in the EA, AU & PMI DF Region, as described in the Regional sections.

Consolidated Shipment Volume

Fourth-Quarter

PMI's total cigarette and HTU shipment volume decreased by 0.5%, reflecting an 6.1% increase in HTU shipments across all regions except EA, AU & PMI DF Region, partly offset by a 1.9% decline in cigarette shipments with declines in the EA, AU & PMI DF Region, the Americas Region, as well as the SSEA, CIS & MEA Region, and broadly stable cigarette shipments in the Europe Region. Cigarette shipment volume for Marlboro decreased by 0.8% to 60.2 billion units, due primarily to the Philippines.

PMI's total oral product shipment volume increased by over 100%, driven by the Swedish Match acquisition. On a pro forma basis (including Swedish Match in all periods), it increased by 23.4%, primarily reflecting growth in nicotine pouches (particularly in the U.S.), partly offset by a decline for snus (mainly in Scandinavia). Swedish Match's total oral product shipment volume increased by 21.9% versus its corresponding shipments in 2022.

Adjusted in-market sales for HTUs increased by 13.9%, including growth in Europe of 13.1%, Japan of 13.4%. Excluding Russia and Ukraine, adjusted in-market sales for HTUs increased by 15.0%. The net unfavorable impact of estimated distributor inventory movements for HTUs was driven primarily by Japan.

Full-Year

PMI's total cigarette and HTU shipment volume increased by 1.0%, reflecting an 14.7% increase in HTU shipments across all regions, partly offset by a 1.4% decline in cigarette shipments due to declines in the Europe, EA, AU & PMI DF, and Americas Regions, partly offset by the SSEA, CIS & MEA Region. Cigarette shipment volume for Marlboro decreased by 1.9% to 240.0 billion units, due primarily to the Philippines.

PMI's total oral product shipment volume increased by over 100%, driven by the Swedish Match acquisition. On a pro forma basis (including Swedish Match in all periods), it increased by 16.8%, primarily reflecting the same factors as in the quarter. Swedish Match's total oral product shipment volume increased by 17.1% versus its corresponding shipments in 2022.

Adjusted in-market sales for HTUs increased by 14.8% (in line with full-year HTUs shipment volume growth of 14.7%), including growth in Europe of 17.6% and Japan of 14.5%. Excluding Russia and Ukraine, adjusted in market sales for HTUs increased by 17.1%.

International Share of Market - Cigarettes and HTUs

CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL SUMMARY

Fourth-Quarter

Net revenues increased by 8.3% on an organic basis, mainly reflecting: a favorable pricing variance, primarily driven by higher combustible tobacco pricing; and favorable volume/mix, mainly driven by higher HTU volume, partially offset by lower cigarette volume.

Adjusted operating income increased by 8.0% on an organic basis, mainly reflecting: the favorable pricing variance; partially offset by higher marketing, administration and research costs (primarily due to inflationary impacts, notably related to wages) as well as higher manufacturing costs. Slightly unfavorable volume/mix, mainly driven by lower cigarette volume, was partly offset by higher HTU volume.

Full-Year

Adjusted net revenues increased by 7.8% on an organic basis, mainly reflecting: a favorable pricing variance, primarily driven by higher combustible tobacco pricing, and favorable volume/mix, mainly driven by higher HTU volume, partially offset by lower cigarette volume and lower fees for certain distribution rights billed to customers in certain markets.

Cost of sales, excluding currency and acquisitions, increased by 8.4%, driven by higher manufacturing costs (primarily due to inflationary impacts, notably related to direct materials, tobacco leaf and energy, partly offset by productivity) and unfavorable volume/mix, mainly reflecting unfavorable category mix (notably due to lower cigarette volume and higher HTU volume), as well as the technical impact of third-party manufacturing in Indonesia. This increase was partially offset by the Swedish Match AB acquisition accounting related item in 2022, the impairment charge of other intangible assets in 2022 and lower charges related to the War in Ukraine.

Adjusted operating income increased by 3.7% on an organic basis, mainly reflecting: the favorable pricing variance; partly offset by higher marketing, administration and research costs (primarily due to inflationary impacts, notably related to wages, and lower commercial investments in the prior year period); higher manufacturing costs (as explained for cost of sales); and the impact of lower fees for certain distribution rights, as noted for net revenues.

EUROPE REGION

Total Market, PMI Shipment & Market Share Commentaries

Fourth-Quarter

The estimated total market for cigarettes and HTUs in the Region decreased by 0.9% to 130.8 billion units, reflecting a 2.6% decline for cigarettes, partly offset by a 13.2% increase for HTUs. The decrease in the estimated total market was predominantly due to the UK (down by 16.7%), the Czech Republic (down by 14.7%) and France (down by 7.3%), partly offset by Italy (up by 2.5%).

PMI's total cigarette and HTU shipment volume in the Region increased by 2.6% to 53.6 billion units, mainly due to Poland (up by 10.6%), Italy (up by 4.0%) and Ukraine (up by 14.9%), partly offset by France (down by 13.7%; or by 8.3% excluding the net unfavorable impact of estimated distributor inventory movements) and Germany (down by 6.2%).

PMI's estimated HTU adjusted in-market sales volume in the Region increased by 13.1% in the quarter, reflecting the strong continued growth momentum for IQOS (including in Germany, where adjusted in-market sales volume for HTUs increased by 19.5%).

PMI's HTU share of the total cigarette and HTU market in the Region increased by 1.1 points, or by 1.2 points on an adjusted basis.

Full-Year

The estimated total market for cigarettes and HTUs in the Region decreased by 1.3% to 542.3 billion units, reflecting a 3.0% decline for cigarettes, partly offset by a 15.6% increase for HTUs. The decrease in the estimated total market was predominantly due to the UK (down by 15.4%), France (down by 8.2%), Germany (down by 1.8%) and Spain (down by 2.4%), partly offset by Poland (up by 1.8%).

PMI's total cigarette and HTU shipment volume in the Region decreased by 0.6% to 214.9 billion units, mainly due to Germany (down by 6.0%), Italy (down by 2.8%; or up by 0.4% excluding the net unfavorable impact of estimated distributor inventory movements) and France (down by 7.3%), partly offset by Poland (up by 9.4%).

PMI's estimated HTU adjusted in-market sales volume in the Region increased by 17.6%, including growth in Germany and Italy of 29.7% and 16.6%, respectively.

PMI's HTU share of the total cigarette and HTU market in the Region increased by 1.3 points, or by 1.5 points on an adjusted basis.

Financial Summary

Fourth-Quarter

Net revenues increased by 9.6% on an organic basis, reflecting: a favorable pricing variance, mainly driven by higher combustible tobacco pricing; and favorable volume/mix, primarily driven by higher HTU volume and favorable mix, partly offset by lower cigarette volume, as well as unfavorable cigarette mix.

Adjusted operating income increased by 13.0% on an organic basis, primarily reflecting: the favorable pricing variance; favorable volume/mix, mainly reflecting higher HTU volume, partly offset by lower cigarette volume, as well as unfavorable cigarette mix; partly offset by higher marketing, administration and research costs (primarily due to inflationary impacts) as well as higher manufacturing costs.

Full-Year

Net revenues increased by 3.7% on an organic basis, reflecting: a favorable pricing variance, mainly driven by higher combustible tobacco pricing; partially offset by unfavorable volume/mix, mainly due to lower cigarette volume, as well as unfavorable cigarette mix, partly offset by higher HTU volume.

Adjusted operating income decreased by 0.3% on an organic basis, primarily reflecting: higher marketing, administration and research costs (mainly due to inflationary impacts and lower commercial investments in the prior year period); higher manufacturing costs (primarily due to inflationary impacts); and unfavorable volume/mix, mainly due to the same factors as for net revenues; partly offset by the favorable pricing variance.

SSEA, CIS & MEA REGION

Total Market, PMI Shipment & Market Share Commentaries

Fourth-Quarter

The estimated total market for cigarettes and HTUs in the Region decreased by approximately 1% to 389.2 billion units, due to a decline for cigarettes. The decrease in the estimated total market was mainly due to Egypt (down by 21.8%) and Pakistan (down by 25.1%), partly offset by Turkey (up by 13.3%).

PMI's total cigarette and HTU shipment volume in the Region increased by 0.5% to 90.5 billion units, mainly driven by Turkey (up by 19.0%), partly offset by the Philippines (down by 25.5%). PMI's estimated HTU adjusted in-market sales volume increased by 13.0%, with 22.5% HTU shipment volume growth, primarily due to comparison effects, notably in Russia.

Full-Year

The estimated total market for cigarettes and HTUs in the Region decreased by approximately 2% to 1,528.6 billion units, due to a decline for cigarettes. The decrease in the estimated total market was predominantly due to Egypt (down by 20.9%) and Pakistan (down by 35.1%), partly offset by Turkey (up by 16.9%).

Our Regional market share increased by 0.8 points to 23.4%.

PMI's total cigarette and HTU shipment volume in the Region increased by 1.3% to 358.2 billion units, mainly driven by Turkey (up by 23.0%), partly offset by the Philippines (down by 26.2%). PMI's estimated HTU adjusted in-market sales volume increased by 8.2% including limited growth in Russia.

Financial Summary

Fourth-Quarter

Net revenues increased by 13.0% on an organic basis, primarily reflecting: a favorable pricing variance, mainly driven by higher combustible tobacco pricing; and favorable volume/mix, driven by higher HTU volume and favorable cigarette mix, partly offset by lower cigarette volume.

Adjusted operating income increased by 8.4% on an organic basis, primarily reflecting: the favorable pricing variance, partly offset by higher marketing, administration and research costs; higher manufacturing costs (primarily due to inflationary impacts); and unfavorable volume/mix, mainly due to an unfavorable cigarette volume impact.

Full-Year

Adjusted net revenues increased by 12.4% on an organic basis, primarily reflecting: a favorable pricing variance, mainly driven by higher combustible tobacco pricing, with HTU pricing also higher; favorable volume/mix, primarily driven by favorable cigarette mix, as well as higher volume for HTUs, partly offset by an unfavorable cigarette volume impact; and partially offset by lower fees for certain distribution rights billed to customers in certain markets, shown in "Cost/Other."

Adjusted operating income decreased by 1.1% on an organic basis, primarily reflecting: higher marketing, administration and research costs; higher manufacturing costs (primarily due to inflationary impacts); unfavorable volume/mix, mainly due to an unfavorable cigarette volume impact and unfavorable cigarette mix, partly offset by higher HTU volume; and the impact of lower fees for certain distribution rights, as noted for net revenues; partially offset by the favorable pricing variance.

EA, AU AND PMI DF REGION

Total Market, PMI Shipment & Market Share Commentaries

Fourth-Quarter

The estimated total market for cigarettes and HTUs in the Region, excluding China, decreased by around 1% to 80.7 billion units, with growth for HTUs more than offset by a decline for cigarettes. The decrease in the estimated total market was driven by Taiwan (down by 18.1%), partly offset by International Duty Free (up by 26.3%).

PMI's total cigarette and HTU shipment volume in the Region decreased by 7.5% to 23.2 billion units, driven by Japan (down by 13.3%).

PMI's estimated HTU adjusted in-market sales volume in the Region increased by 15.4% in the quarter, including growth in Japan of 13.4%, primarily due to comparison effects.

Full-Year

The estimated total market for cigarettes and HTUs in the Region, excluding China, increased by 1% to 319.8 billion units, reflecting growth for HTUs, partly offset by a decline for cigarettes. The increase in the estimated total market was mainly driven by International Duty Free (up by 35.7%), partly offset by Taiwan (down by 7.4%) and Australia (down by 19.4%).

Our Regional market share increased by 1.3 points to 30.0%.

PMI's total cigarette and HTU shipment volume in the Region increased by 6.7% to 101.2 billion units, mainly driven by Japan (up by 9.7%) and International Duty Free (up by 14.5%).

PMI's estimated HTU adjusted in-market sales volume in the Region increased by 15.8%, including growth in Japan of 14.5%.

Financial Summary

Fourth-Quarter